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Week 6 · 2026
Arizona Cardinalsat
Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium · 1-3 vs 2-2
Published pre-game snapshot. Player availability and roster changes are not inputs to these probabilities.
tie 0.29%
ARI at LAR · published probabilities
Explore a narrow win, a wider win, or a tie.
nfl-margin-lattice-1. Narrow wins sum published margin probabilities. Wider wins use the remainder of each team's published win chance. Ties stay separate.
The 3s and 7s are football's arithmetic — a normal curve would draw a tidy bell straight through them.
LAR by 3 7.37%by 3 or more 63.2%
9.27% of the distribution lies outside 28 points and is not drawn.
Slide to any line the model prices — a whole number can push, and at −3 that is worth about one game in twelve.
market
| LAR line | covers | push | ARI covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -14 | 34.7% | 3.9% | 61.4% |
| -10.5 · market | 44.0% | — | 56.0% |
| -10 | 44.0% | 4.0% | 51.9% |
| -7 | 51.8% | 5.1% | 43.1% |
| -6 | 56.9% | 3.6% | 39.5% |
| -4 | 62.5% | 2.4% | 35.1% |
| -3 | 64.9% | 7.4% | 27.7% |
| PK | 76.2% | 0.3% | 23.6% |
| +3 | 79.6% | 4.9% | 15.4% |
| +4 | 84.6% | 1.9% | 13.6% |
| +6 | 87.6% | 1.8% | 10.6% |
| +7 | 89.4% | 2.5% | 8.1% |
| +10 | 93.3% | 1.2% | 5.5% |
| +14 | 95.8% | 0.9% | 3.2% |
At the market's -10.5 the model gives LAR 44.0% to cover and 56.0% against — a half-point line cannot push.
Provider DraftKings · the market is the benchmark, not the target.
From ESPN — the model does not see this, so apply it to the forecast above yourself.
ARI at LAR · game summary
Sun, Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET
ESPN · summary update not supplied
Summary leader lines; statistic period is unverified. No starter, full roster, scouting grade or career record is inferred. Summaries may be cached for 24 hours.
Selected leaders and reported availability from this game summary. This is not a full roster.
ESPN · summary update not supplied