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Gridiron

2026 season

Week 5

14 games · model nfl-margin-lattice-1 · published Oct 10, 2026

Your week 5 briefing

Find your game.

Explore every matchup ↗

First on the board

01 ↗
PHIatJAX

Sun, Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

The next kickoff in this week’s published schedule.

Too close to call

02 ↗
BALatATL

51.0% / 48.6%

BAL / ATL win chances · closest matchup in the model.

January on the line

03 ↗
LVatNE

23.2 pp

Largest playoff-chance difference between home-win and away-win scenarios for either team.

Gridiron / Forecast Lab

Your Sunday starts here.

Pick a matchup. Explore the numbers. Follow your teams.

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2026 · nfl-margin-lattice-1 · published Oct 10, 2026 · pregame probabilities

The matchups

14 games

The slate

full schedule
Sun, Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ETneutral
PHI
19.9 pts
32.4%
JAX
26.1 pts
67.3%
model
JAX +6.3
total
46.0
market
-7.5
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
CIN
23.2 pts
61.6%
MIA
19.1 pts
38.1%
model
MIA -4.2
total
42.3
market
+7
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
CLE
21.5 pts
57.7%
NYJ
18.7 pts
42.0%
model
NYJ -2.8
total
40.2
market
-2.5
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
HOU
24.3 pts
66.6%
TEN
18.3 pts
33.1%
model
TEN -6.1
total
42.6
market
+7
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
IND
20.1 pts
38.5%
PIT
24.1 pts
61.1%
model
PIT +4.0
total
44.1
market
-3
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
LV
17.1 pts
28.5%
NE
24.9 pts
71.2%
model
NE +7.8
total
41.9
market
-3.5
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
MIN
26.2 pts
66.0%
NO
20.4 pts
33.7%
model
NO -5.8
total
46.6
market
+2.5
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
NYG
22.6 pts
52.3%
WSH
21.6 pts
47.3%
model
WSH -0.9
total
44.2
market
-3.5
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
CHI
23.5 pts
59.1%
GB
20.2 pts
40.5%
model
GB -3.3
total
43.6
market
+1.5
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET
DEN
22.2 pts
62.0%
LAC
17.9 pts
37.7%
model
LAC -4.3
total
40.1
market
+3.5
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
DET
24.3 pts
58.4%
ARI
21.3 pts
41.3%
model
ARI -3.0
total
45.6
market
+5.5
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
SF
21.4 pts
36.8%
SEA
26.0 pts
62.8%
model
SEA +4.6
total
47.3
market
-3
Game detail
Sun, Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET
BAL
24.6 pts
51.0%
ATL
24.1 pts
48.6%
model
ATL -0.4
total
48.7
market
-3
Game detail
Mon, Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET
BUF
24.1 pts
47.5%
LAR
24.9 pts
52.1%
model
LAR +0.8
total
49.0
market
-3
Game detail

Price a matchup

any two teams
PHI @ JAXCIN @ MIACLE @ NYJHOU @ TENIND @ PITLV @ NEMIN @ NONYG @ WSHCHI @ GBDEN @ LACDET @ ARISF @ SEABAL @ ATLBUF @ LAR

Super Bowl odds

all 32
  1. 1SEA18.5%
  2. 2MIN12.5%
  3. 3JAX12.2%
  4. 4BUF12.2%
  5. 5SF11.6%
  6. 6KC6.0%
  7. 7NE5.2%
  8. 8BAL3.8%
  9. 9CHI3.6%
  10. 10DEN3.6%

20,000 simulated seasons — no injury or roster data, so more concentrated than a futures market.

Power ratings

all 32
  1. 1SEA1677
  2. 2SF1629
  3. 3BUF1623
  4. 4JAX1612
  5. 5MIN1611
  6. 6NE1590
  7. 7LAR1586
  8. 8DEN1578

Elo, bars scaled from the league's worst (1308) to its best (1677).

Teams · projected record

all 32

The record

full accounting
Games scored
5,762
Model Brier
0.2200
Market Brier
0.2120
Paired market gap
+0.0087

Walk-forward on 5,762 games, accuracy 64.0%. Model and market scorecards cover different samples; the gap uses paired games. Historical retained prices have no verified closing timestamp.