2026 projection

Season

20,000 simulated seasons · 65 played, 207 remaining · published Oct 10, 2026

The race · 2026

published in advance

American Football Conference

Jacksonville JaguarsBuffalo BillsKansas City Chiefsthe other 13

One point per day the forecast ran. These numbers were published in advance. Probabilities inside a conference sum to one, so the 3 named contenders and the field account for all 16 teams — nothing is dropped.

Table view

Week	Games	JAX	BUF	KC	Field
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	0	12.3%	16.1%	1.8%	69.8%
0	2	12.5%	17.3%	1.9%	68.3%
0	2	12.5%	17.3%	1.9%	68.3%
1	15	17.0%	22.8%	1.5%	58.7%
1	16	17.7%	23.5%	5.9%	52.8%
1	16	17.7%	23.5%	5.9%	52.8%
1	16	17.7%	23.5%	5.9%	52.8%
1	17	16.4%	29.3%	5.2%	49.0%
1	17	16.4%	29.3%	5.2%	49.0%
1	17	16.4%	29.3%	5.2%	49.0%
2	31	11.7%	29.3%	6.8%	52.2%
2	32	12.3%	29.3%	7.0%	51.4%
2	32	12.3%	29.3%	7.0%	51.4%
2	32	12.3%	29.3%	7.0%	51.4%
2	33	11.4%	29.6%	6.4%	52.7%
2	33	11.4%	29.6%	6.4%	52.7%
2	33	11.4%	29.6%	6.4%	52.7%
3	47	18.0%	33.4%	9.5%	39.0%
3	48	18.5%	33.6%	9.2%	38.7%
3	48	18.5%	33.6%	9.2%	38.7%
3	48	18.5%	33.6%	9.2%	38.7%
3	49	18.4%	33.1%	9.7%	38.9%
3	49	18.4%	33.1%	9.7%	38.9%
3	49	18.4%	33.1%	9.7%	38.9%
4	64	24.4%	23.1%	13.9%	38.6%
4	64	24.4%	23.1%	13.9%	38.6%
4	64	24.4%	23.1%	13.9%	38.6%
4	65	24.7%	23.7%	13.8%	37.8%
4	65	24.7%	23.7%	13.8%	37.8%

National Football Conference

Seattle SeahawksMinnesota VikingsSan Francisco 49ersthe other 13

Table view

Week	Games	SEA	MIN	SF	Field
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	0	38.1%	7.0%	6.4%	48.5%
0	2	41.1%	7.0%	13.4%	38.6%
0	2	41.1%	7.0%	13.4%	38.6%
1	15	38.5%	11.3%	12.8%	37.4%
1	16	38.6%	11.4%	12.1%	37.9%
1	16	38.6%	11.4%	12.1%	37.9%
1	16	38.6%	11.4%	12.1%	37.9%
1	17	39.2%	11.6%	12.9%	36.3%
1	17	39.2%	11.6%	12.9%	36.3%
1	17	39.2%	11.6%	12.9%	36.3%
2	31	40.8%	16.5%	13.7%	29.0%
2	32	40.4%	15.8%	13.4%	30.4%
2	32	40.4%	15.8%	13.4%	30.4%
2	32	40.4%	15.8%	13.4%	30.4%
2	33	40.6%	16.3%	13.1%	30.0%
2	33	40.6%	16.3%	13.1%	30.0%
2	33	40.6%	16.3%	13.1%	30.0%
3	47	29.8%	23.9%	16.5%	29.8%
3	48	30.2%	23.9%	17.1%	28.8%
3	48	30.2%	23.9%	17.1%	28.8%
3	48	30.2%	23.9%	17.1%	28.8%
3	49	30.6%	23.7%	17.2%	28.5%
3	49	30.6%	23.7%	17.2%	28.5%
3	49	30.6%	23.7%	17.2%	28.5%
4	64	29.3%	23.3%	20.6%	26.7%
4	64	29.3%	23.3%	20.6%	26.7%
4	64	29.3%	23.3%	20.6%	26.7%
4	65	29.1%	23.6%	20.9%	26.3%
4	65	29.1%	23.6%	20.9%	26.3%

AFC East

team	proj	range	div	playoff	bye	title
Buffalo Bills	11.2-5.8	9–13	63.0%	91.4%	22.1%	12.2%
New England Patriots	10.0-6.9	8–12	36.4%	75.3%	6.6%	5.2%
New York Jets	5.2-11.8	3–7	0.4%	2.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Miami Dolphins	4.5-12.5	2–7	0.1%	0.7%	—	—

AFC North

team	proj	range	div	playoff	bye	title
Baltimore Ravens	10.3-6.7	8–13	47.8%	76.2%	10.6%	3.8%
Cincinnati Bengals	9.2-7.8	7–11	20.5%	50.9%	2.4%	1.0%
Cleveland Browns	9.2-7.8	7–11	20.4%	49.1%	2.1%	0.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.4-8.6	6–11	11.3%	32.2%	0.9%	0.6%

AFC South

team	proj	range	div	playoff	bye	title
Jacksonville Jaguars	11.7-5.3	10–14	87.5%	94.6%	29.8%	12.2%
Indianapolis Colts	8.2-8.8	6–10	9.3%	28.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Houston Texans	6.8-10.2	4–9	3.0%	10.4%	<0.1%	0.2%
Tennessee Titans	3.8-13.1	2–6	<0.1%	0.3%	—	—

AFC West

team	proj	range	div	playoff	bye	title
Kansas City Chiefs	11.0-5.9	9–13	66.4%	89.3%	18.5%	6.0%
Denver Broncos	9.7-7.3	7–12	25.4%	64.9%	5.6%	3.6%
Las Vegas Raiders	8.3-8.6	6–11	7.8%	32.2%	0.9%	0.2%
Los Angeles Chargers	5.0-12.0	3–7	0.4%	1.8%	<0.1%	<0.1%

NFC East

team	proj	range	div	playoff	bye	title
New York Giants	9.1-7.8	7–11	47.4%	54.6%	1.6%	0.6%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.7-8.3	6–11	36.5%	43.1%	0.7%	1.2%
Dallas Cowboys	7.3-9.7	5–9	11.5%	16.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Washington Commanders	6.3-10.7	4–9	4.6%	6.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%

NFC North

team	proj	range	div	playoff	bye	title
Minnesota Vikings	12.4-4.6	10–15	74.6%	95.5%	38.6%	12.5%
Chicago Bears	10.3-6.7	8–12	17.1%	71.8%	6.2%	3.6%
Detroit Lions	8.8-8.2	6–11	6.5%	37.3%	1.6%	0.9%
Green Bay Packers	7.7-9.2	5–10	1.8%	17.3%	0.3%	0.2%

NFC South

team	proj	range	div	playoff	bye	title
Atlanta Falcons	8.6-8.4	6–11	45.2%	51.9%	1.2%	0.9%
Carolina Panthers	8.0-9.0	6–10	33.7%	39.0%	0.5%	0.5%
New Orleans Saints	6.7-10.3	4–9	10.4%	12.6%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.3-10.6	4–9	10.7%	12.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%

NFC West

team	proj	range	div	playoff	bye	title
Seattle Seahawks	11.8-5.1	10–14	47.8%	91.2%	22.3%	18.5%
San Francisco 49ers	11.7-5.2	10–14	43.6%	90.2%	23.5%	11.6%
Los Angeles Rams	9.6-7.3	7–12	8.5%	58.4%	3.3%	3.0%
Arizona Cardinals	5.7-11.2	4–8	<0.1%	2.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%

A tie counts as half a win. The p10–p90 range is deliberately wide — seventeen games is a short season.