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2026 · nfl-margin-lattice-1 · published Oct 10, 2026 · pregame probabilities

PHI at JAX · published probabilities

Close-game paths

Explore a narrow win, a wider win, or a tie.

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Forecast published
Oct 10, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC
Results cutoff
Oct 9, 2026, 12:15 AM UTC

nfl-margin-lattice-1. Narrow wins sum published margin probabilities. Wider wins use the remainder of each team's published win chance. Ties stay separate.

Read the published-ahead record →

The January effect

20,000 simulated seasons

One game. A different playoff picture.

Choose a result to explore the seasons where it happened.

Tie scenario withheld: 71 samples; at least 200 needed.

Simulation baseline · all outcomes

PHI
43.1%make playoffs

+0.0 pp · baseline 43.1%

Win division
36.5%
Win Super Bowl
1.2%
JAX
94.6%make playoffs

+0.0 pp · baseline 94.6%

Win division
87.5%
Win Super Bowl
12.2%
How to read this simulation

The bars show playoff chances; the white mark shows this simulation’s baseline. “pp” means percentage points. This is a comparison within the same simulated seasons, including shared team-strength uncertainty, not a causal effect of forcing a result.

These outlooks use the corrected head-to-head simulator (nfl-season-h2h-2); an older season page may use a previous simulator. Head-to-head, division and conference records are applied. Common-games and deeper tiebreakers remain approximated.

Read the model’s record →
Try a simple record scenario

What if this game goes your way?

Add one hypothetical result to the published standings.

PHI current

2–2–0

Published playoff chance 43.1%

JAX current

3–1–0

Published playoff chance 94.6%

This adds only the selected game; intervening fixtures are not simulated. Playoff odds remain the published forecast.

Explore the conference race →

Explore the spread

-7.5market

-14+14
JAX covers
41.0%
push
—
PHI covers
59.0%

Move between published lines. A push is a separate outcome at football’s key numbers.

Every point tells a story

PHI by 28 — 0.20%PHI by 27 — 0.14%PHI by 26 — 0.11%PHI by 25 — 0.19%PHI by 24 — 0.37%PHI by 23 — 0.25%PHI by 22 — 0.21%PHI by 21 — 0.53%PHI by 20 — 0.41%PHI by 19 — 0.29%PHI by 18 — 0.54%PHI by 17 — 0.86%PHI by 16 — 0.63%PHI by 15 — 0.48%PHI by 14 — 1.44%PHI by 13 — 0.76%PHI by 12 — 0.49%PHI by 11 — 0.81%PHI by 10 — 1.65%PHI by 9 — 0.55%PHI by 8 — 1.37%PHI by 7 — 3.33%7PHI by 6 — 2.38%PHI by 5 — 1.55%PHI by 4 — 2.38%PHI by 3 — 6.10%3PHI by 2 — 1.90%PHI by 1 — 1.96%Tie — 0.34%JAX by 1 — 2.16%JAX by 2 — 2.24%JAX by 3 — 8.13%3JAX by 4 — 2.58%JAX by 5 — 2.16%JAX by 6 — 3.75%JAX by 7 — 5.21%7JAX by 8 — 2.48%JAX by 9 — 1.20%JAX by 10 — 3.85%JAX by 11 — 1.63%JAX by 12 — 1.44%JAX by 13 — 1.89%JAX by 14 — 3.48%JAX by 15 — 1.22%JAX by 16 — 1.45%JAX by 17 — 2.52%JAX by 18 — 1.77%JAX by 19 — 0.98%JAX by 20 — 1.82%JAX by 21 — 2.13%JAX by 22 — 1.02%JAX by 23 — 1.03%JAX by 24 — 1.75%JAX by 25 — 0.98%JAX by 26 — 0.81%JAX by 27 — 1.01%JAX by 28 — 1.27%21147071421
PHI bymarginJAX by

JAX by 3 8.13%by 3 or more 57.6%

5.82% of the distribution lies outside 28 points and is not drawn.

The matchups

14 games

Know the model

Elo strength, form, rest and a discrete margin model. No quarterback availability, injuries or in-game updates in these probabilities.

Training cutoff: Oct 9, 2026.

See how it performs →

The record

full accounting
Games scored
5,762
Model Brier
0.2200
Market Brier
0.2120
Paired market gap
+0.0087

Walk-forward on 5,762 games, accuracy 64.0%. Model and market scorecards cover different samples; the gap uses paired games. Historical retained prices have no verified closing timestamp.