5,762 scored games · backtest
Upsets
The games nobody saw coming, across every scored season since 2005.
Biggest upsets
How much the walk-forward gave the side that actually won.
2020
NYJ 23@
LAR 20gave the winner 9.4%2008
MIA 38@
NE 13gave the winner 10.0%2009
LV 27@
PIT 24gave the winner 11.8%2009
TB 20@
NO 17gave the winner 11.8%2020
LAC 38@
KC 21gave the winner 12.9%2021
IND 11@
JAX 26gave the winner 13.4%2015
PHI 35@NE 28gave the winner 13.8%2019MIA 27@NE 24gave the winner 14.2%2005
BUF 37@
CIN 27gave the winner 14.8%2006MIA 31@
CHI 13gave the winner 15.0%2018
CAR 33@NO 14gave the winner 15.1%2024CHI 24@
GB 22gave the winner 15.1%2021
HOU 22@
TEN 13gave the winner 15.2%2024BUF 16@NE 23gave the winner 15.3%2011CAR 28@HOU 13gave the winner 15.6%
NYJ 23@LAR 20gave the winner 9.4%2008MIA 38@NE 13gave the winner 10.0%2009LV 27@PIT 24gave the winner 11.8%2009TB 20@NO 17gave the winner 11.8%2020LAC 38@KC 21gave the winner 12.9%2021IND 11@JAX 26gave the winner 13.4%2015PHI 35@NE 28gave the winner 13.8%2019MIA 27@NE 24gave the winner 14.2%2005BUF 37@CIN 27gave the winner 14.8%2006MIA 31@CHI 13gave the winner 15.0%2018CAR 33@NO 14gave the winner 15.1%2024CHI 24@GB 22gave the winner 15.1%2021HOU 22@TEN 13gave the winner 15.2%2024BUF 16@NE 23gave the winner 15.3%2011CAR 28@HOU 13gave the winner 15.6%Model vs market
Where the two disagreed hardest on the eventual winner — model first, market second.
2012
ARI 20@NE 1820.4% vs 83.8%2020LAC 38@KC 2112.9% vs 72.5%2012
WSH 40@NO 3216.7% vs 74.0%2012TB 34@
NYG 4179.9% vs 24.8%2012KC 27@NO 2423.8% vs 76.4%2012LAR 23@
DET 2777.3% vs 24.8%2017
SF 34@LAR 1318.9% vs 71.5%2012LAR 6@CHI 2373.0% vs 22.4%2024KC 0@
DEN 3834.7% vs 84.7%2019GB 31@KC 2432.2% vs 78.8%2012TB 10@
DAL 1670.5% vs 24.8%2012IND 21@CHI 4168.8% vs 24.8%2023PIT 17@
BAL 1019.7% vs 60.3%2012DET 19@SF 2770.0% vs 29.8%2017DAL 6@PHI 025.2% vs 65.2%
ARI 20@NE 1820.4% vs 83.8%2020LAC 38@KC 2112.9% vs 72.5%2012WSH 40@NO 3216.7% vs 74.0%2012TB 34@NYG 4179.9% vs 24.8%2012KC 27@NO 2423.8% vs 76.4%2012LAR 23@DET 2777.3% vs 24.8%2017SF 34@LAR 1318.9% vs 71.5%2012LAR 6@CHI 2373.0% vs 22.4%2024KC 0@DEN 3834.7% vs 84.7%2019GB 31@KC 2432.2% vs 78.8%2012TB 10@DAL 1670.5% vs 24.8%2012IND 21@CHI 4168.8% vs 24.8%2023PIT 17@BAL 1019.7% vs 60.3%2012DET 19@SF 2770.0% vs 29.8%2017DAL 6@PHI 025.2% vs 65.2%Biggest margin misses
Actual margin against the projected one, home perspective.
2010LV 59@DEN 14off by 49.5 · proj +4.52012ARI 0@
SEA 58off by 49.4 · proj +8.72009TEN 0@NE 59off by 49.1 · proj +9.92005NO 3@GB 52off by 46.0 · proj +3.02011IND 7@NO 62off by 45.0 · proj +9.92019BAL 59@MIA 10off by 45.0 · proj -4.02020NE 45@LAC 0off by 44.7 · proj -0.32024KC 0@DEN 38off by 43.6 · proj -5.62011TB 3@SF 48off by 43.3 · proj +1.72012TEN 37@MIA 3off by 43.1 · proj +9.12017TEN 14@HOU 57off by 42.8 · proj +0.22023DEN 20@MIA 70off by 42.8 · proj +7.22014LV 0@LAR 52off by 42.4 · proj +9.62008MIA 38@NE 13off by 42.4 · proj +17.42023LAC 21@LV 63off by 42.4 · proj -0.3
LV 59@DEN 14off by 49.5 · proj +4.52012ARI 0@SEA 58off by 49.4 · proj +8.72009TEN 0@NE 59off by 49.1 · proj +9.92005NO 3@GB 52off by 46.0 · proj +3.02011IND 7@NO 62off by 45.0 · proj +9.92019BAL 59@MIA 10off by 45.0 · proj -4.02020NE 45@LAC 0off by 44.7 · proj -0.32024KC 0@DEN 38off by 43.6 · proj -5.62011TB 3@SF 48off by 43.3 · proj +1.72012TEN 37@MIA 3off by 43.1 · proj +9.12017TEN 14@HOU 57off by 42.8 · proj +0.22023DEN 20@MIA 70off by 42.8 · proj +7.22014LV 0@LAR 52off by 42.4 · proj +9.62008MIA 38@NE 13off by 42.4 · proj +17.42023LAC 21@LV 63off by 42.4 · proj -0.3Backtest — refit strictly before each week, read by nobody before kickoff. Ties are excluded from the upset board: a level game has no winner to have underrated.