2026 · 20,000 simulated seasons
Road to the Super Bowl
7 seeds per conference · one bye · published Oct 10, 2026
Only the first column is a matchup. 2v7, 3v6 and 4v5 are fixed by the seeds, so those cards name two teams — each with the probability it actually holds that seed. Every later cell names its likeliest occupant and the probability that team reaches that round, taken straight from the simulation.
There are no connectors, deliberately. The NFL reseeds after every round — the top seed plays whichever survivor is worst — so there is no line from a wild-card card to a divisional card that is true before the wild-card games are played. Drawing one, and advancing the modal winner through it, would compound a single seeding assumption three rounds deep and publish the result as a Super Bowl number the simulation already computes correctly.
American Football Conference · round by round
| team | proj | make it | bye | divisional | conf game | conf title | super bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 11.7-5.3 | 94.6% | 29.8% | 72.1% | 43.2% | 24.7% | 12.2% |
 Buffalo Bills | 11.2-5.8 | 91.4% | 22.1% | 65.5% | 40.0% | 23.7% | 12.2% |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 11.0-5.9 | 89.3% | 18.5% | 58.0% | 29.3% | 13.8% | 6.0% |
 New England Patriots | 10.0-6.9 | 75.3% | 6.6% | 43.6% | 22.6% | 11.3% | 5.2% |
 Baltimore Ravens | 10.3-6.7 | 76.2% | 10.6% | 43.9% | 20.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% |
 Denver Broncos | 9.7-7.3 | 64.9% | 5.6% | 35.7% | 17.5% | 8.2% | 3.6% |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 9.2-7.8 | 50.9% | 2.4% | 22.7% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
 Cleveland Browns | 9.2-7.8 | 49.1% | 2.1% | 18.6% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.4-8.6 | 32.2% | 0.9% | 13.5% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
 Indianapolis Colts | 8.2-8.8 | 28.5% | 0.5% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Marginal probabilities over 20,000 simulated seasons — never multiply them down a row.
National Football Conference · round by round
| team | proj | make it | bye | divisional | conf game | conf title | super bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 11.8-5.1 | 91.2% | 22.3% | 70.3% | 46.2% | 29.1% | 18.5% |
 Minnesota Vikings | 12.4-4.6 | 95.5% | 38.6% | 74.0% | 45.1% | 23.6% | 12.5% |
 San Francisco 49ers | 11.7-5.2 | 90.2% | 23.5% | 65.1% | 37.8% | 20.9% | 11.6% |
 Chicago Bears | 10.3-6.7 | 71.8% | 6.2% | 40.0% | 17.9% | 7.7% | 3.6% |
 Los Angeles Rams | 9.6-7.3 | 58.4% | 3.3% | 31.3% | 13.7% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 8.7-8.3 | 43.1% | 0.7% | 20.8% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
 Atlanta Falcons | 8.6-8.4 | 51.9% | 1.2% | 22.6% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
 Detroit Lions | 8.8-8.2 | 37.3% | 1.6% | 16.6% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
 New York Giants | 9.1-7.8 | 54.6% | 1.6% | 21.6% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
 Carolina Panthers | 8.0-9.0 | 39.0% | 0.5% | 15.1% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
Marginal probabilities over 20,000 simulated seasons — never multiply them down a row.