2026
65 regular-season games · 0 in the postseason
The postseason
No postseason games published for this season.
Seed numbers withheld for American Football Conference and National Football Conference — the season turned on a tiebreaker this project does not model, and a confident wrong number is worse than none.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 3-1 | 127 | 107 | +20 | — |
 New England Patriots | 2-2 | 65 | 77 | -12 | — |
 New York Jets | 1-3 | 76 | 84 | -8 | — |
 Miami Dolphins | 0-4 | 46 | 101 | -55 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 3-1 | 116 | 96 | +20 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 3-1 | 81 | 95 | -14 | — |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 2-2 | 97 | 85 | +12 | — |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 2-2 | 77 | 87 | -10 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-1 | 104 | 53 | +51 | — |
 Indianapolis Colts | 2-2 | 102 | 104 | -2 | — |
 Houston Texans | 0-4 | 84 | 109 | -25 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 0-4 | 55 | 83 | -28 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 4-0 | 118 | 77 | +41 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 3-1 | 115 | 84 | +31 | — |
 Denver Broncos | 2-2 | 74 | 94 | -20 | — |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 0-4 | 67 | 106 | -39 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Giants | 3-1 | 82 | 79 | +3 | — |
 Dallas Cowboys | 2-3 | 138 | 136 | +2 | — |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 2-2 | 75 | 93 | -18 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 1-3 | 88 | 122 | -34 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 4-0 | 86 | 51 | +35 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 3-1 | 112 | 65 | +47 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 2-2 | 119 | 127 | -8 | — |
 Green Bay Packers | 2-2 | 73 | 105 | -32 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 2-2 | 121 | 109 | +12 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 2-2 | 96 | 92 | +4 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-4 | 100 | 112 | -12 | — |
 New Orleans Saints | 1-3 | 105 | 128 | -23 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 4-0 | 122 | 64 | +58 | — |
 Seattle Seahawks | 3-1 | 105 | 73 | +32 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 2-2 | 85 | 83 | +2 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 1-3 | 87 | 117 | -30 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2026-09-27SEA 31 – 33 WSHgave the winner 25.4%2026-09-13ARI 26 – 14 LACgave the winner 27.1%2026-09-20NO 24 – 17 BALgave the winner 30.0%2026-09-20LV 26 – 14 LACgave the winner 33.0%2026-10-04DAL 34 – 30 HOUgave the winner 33.5%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either. 1 warm-up games carry no forecast at all.