2022
271 regular-season games · 13 in the postseason · KC won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top seed in each conference had a bye in 2022 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 13-3 | 455 | 286 | +169 | 2 |
 Miami Dolphins | 9-8 | 397 | 399 | -2 | 7 |
 New England Patriots | 8-9 | 364 | 347 | +17 | — |
 New York Jets | 7-10 | 296 | 316 | -20 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 12-4 | 418 | 322 | +96 | 3 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 10-7 | 350 | 315 | +35 | 6 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-8 | 308 | 346 | -38 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 7-10 | 361 | 381 | -20 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 9-8 | 404 | 350 | +54 | 4 |
 Tennessee Titans | 7-10 | 298 | 359 | -61 | — |
 Indianapolis Colts | 4-12-1 | 289 | 427 | -138 | — |
 Houston Texans | 3-13-1 | 289 | 420 | -131 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 14-3 | 496 | 369 | +127 | 1 |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 10-7 | 391 | 384 | +7 | 5 |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 6-11 | 395 | 418 | -23 | — |
 Denver Broncos | 5-12 | 287 | 359 | -72 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 14-3 | 477 | 344 | +133 | 1 |
 Dallas Cowboys | 12-5 | 467 | 342 | +125 | 5 |
 New York Giants | 9-7-1 | 365 | 371 | -6 | 6 |
 Washington Commanders | 8-8-1 | 321 | 343 | -22 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 13-4 | 424 | 427 | -3 | 3 |
 Detroit Lions | 9-8 | 453 | 427 | +26 | — |
 Green Bay Packers | 8-9 | 370 | 371 | -1 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 3-14 | 326 | 463 | -137 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 | 313 | 358 | -45 | 4 |
 New Orleans Saints | 7-10 | 330 | 345 | -15 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 7-10 | 365 | 386 | -21 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 7-10 | 347 | 374 | -27 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 13-4 | 450 | 277 | +173 | 2 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 9-8 | 407 | 401 | +6 | 7 |
 Los Angeles Rams | 5-12 | 307 | 384 | -77 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 4-13 | 340 | 449 | -109 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2022-11-15WSH 32 – 21 PHIgave the winner 21.3%2022-09-11NYG 21 – 20 TENgave the winner 22.6%2022-10-09NYG 27 – 22 GBgave the winner 23.0%2022-12-24HOU 19 – 14 TENgave the winner 23.7%2022-12-11JAX 36 – 22 TENgave the winner 24.4%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.