2024
272 regular-season games · 13 in the postseason · PHI won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top seed in each conference had a bye in 2024 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 13-4 | 525 | 368 | +157 | 2 |
 Miami Dolphins | 8-9 | 345 | 364 | -19 | — |
 New York Jets | 5-12 | 338 | 404 | -66 | — |
 New England Patriots | 4-13 | 289 | 417 | -128 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 12-5 | 518 | 361 | +157 | 3 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 | 380 | 347 | +33 | 6 |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 9-8 | 472 | 434 | +38 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 3-14 | 258 | 435 | -177 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 10-7 | 372 | 372 | 0 | 4 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 377 | 427 | -50 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-13 | 320 | 435 | -115 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 3-14 | 311 | 460 | -149 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 15-2 | 385 | 326 | +59 | 1 |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 | 402 | 301 | +101 | 5 |
 Denver Broncos | 10-7 | 425 | 311 | +114 | 7 |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 4-13 | 309 | 434 | -125 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 14-3 | 463 | 303 | +160 | 2 |
 Washington Commanders | 12-5 | 485 | 391 | +94 | 6 |
 Dallas Cowboys | 7-10 | 350 | 468 | -118 | — |
 New York Giants | 3-14 | 273 | 415 | -142 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 15-2 | 564 | 342 | +222 | 1 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 14-3 | 432 | 332 | +100 | 5 |
 Green Bay Packers | 11-6 | 460 | 338 | +122 | 7 |
 Chicago Bears | 5-12 | 310 | 370 | -60 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10-7 | 502 | 385 | +117 | 3 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 8-9 | 389 | 423 | -34 | — |
 New Orleans Saints | 5-12 | 338 | 398 | -60 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 5-12 | 341 | 534 | -193 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 10-7 | 375 | 368 | +7 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 10-7 | 367 | 386 | -19 | 4 |
 Arizona Cardinals | 8-9 | 400 | 379 | +21 | — |
 San Francisco 49ers | 6-11 | 389 | 436 | -47 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2025-01-05CHI 24 – 22 GBgave the winner 15.1%2025-01-05BUF 16 – 23 NEgave the winner 15.3%2024-09-22CAR 36 – 22 LVgave the winner 21.1%2025-01-19WSH 45 – 31 DETgave the winner 21.7%2024-10-06ARI 24 – 23 SFgave the winner 24.3%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.