2015
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · DEN won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2015 and enter at the divisional round.
Seed numbers withheld for American Football Conference — the season turned on a tiebreaker this project does not model, and a confident wrong number is worse than none.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 12-4 | 465 | 315 | +150 | — |
 New York Jets | 10-6 | 387 | 314 | +73 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | 379 | 359 | +20 | — |
 Miami Dolphins | 6-10 | 310 | 389 | -79 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 12-4 | 419 | 279 | +140 | — |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-6 | 423 | 319 | +104 | — |
 Baltimore Ravens | 5-11 | 328 | 401 | -73 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 3-13 | 278 | 432 | -154 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 9-7 | 339 | 313 | +26 | — |
 Indianapolis Colts | 8-8 | 333 | 408 | -75 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | 376 | 448 | -72 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 3-13 | 299 | 423 | -124 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 12-4 | 355 | 296 | +59 | — |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 11-5 | 405 | 287 | +118 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 7-9 | 359 | 399 | -40 | — |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 4-12 | 320 | 398 | -78 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 9-7 | 388 | 379 | +9 | 4 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 7-9 | 377 | 430 | -53 | — |
 New York Giants | 6-10 | 420 | 442 | -22 | — |
 Dallas Cowboys | 4-12 | 275 | 374 | -99 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 11-5 | 365 | 302 | +63 | 3 |
 Green Bay Packers | 10-6 | 368 | 323 | +45 | 5 |
 Detroit Lions | 7-9 | 358 | 400 | -42 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 6-10 | 335 | 397 | -62 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 15-1 | 500 | 308 | +192 | 1 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 8-8 | 339 | 345 | -6 | — |
 New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 408 | 476 | -68 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-10 | 342 | 417 | -75 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 13-3 | 489 | 313 | +176 | 2 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 10-6 | 423 | 277 | +146 | 6 |
 Los Angeles Rams | 7-9 | 280 | 330 | -50 | — |
 San Francisco 49ers | 5-11 | 238 | 387 | -149 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2015-12-06PHI 35 – 28 NEgave the winner 13.8%2015-12-27LAR 23 – 17 SEAgave the winner 17.0%2015-12-13LV 15 – 12 DENgave the winner 18.9%2015-11-17HOU 10 – 6 CINgave the winner 21.3%2015-11-15JAX 22 – 20 BALgave the winner 21.4%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.