2017
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · PHI won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2017 and enter at the divisional round.
Seed numbers withheld for American Football Conference — the season turned on a tiebreaker this project does not model, and a confident wrong number is worse than none.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 13-3 | 458 | 296 | +162 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 9-7 | 302 | 359 | -57 | — |
 Miami Dolphins | 6-10 | 281 | 393 | -112 | — |
 New York Jets | 5-11 | 298 | 382 | -84 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 13-3 | 406 | 308 | +98 | — |
 Baltimore Ravens | 9-7 | 395 | 303 | +92 | — |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 7-9 | 290 | 349 | -59 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 0-16 | 234 | 410 | -176 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 10-6 | 417 | 268 | +149 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 9-7 | 334 | 356 | -22 | — |
 Houston Texans | 4-12 | 338 | 436 | -98 | — |
 Indianapolis Colts | 4-12 | 263 | 404 | -141 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 10-6 | 415 | 339 | +76 | — |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 9-7 | 355 | 272 | +83 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 6-10 | 301 | 373 | -72 | — |
 Denver Broncos | 5-11 | 289 | 382 | -93 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 13-3 | 457 | 295 | +162 | 2 |
 Dallas Cowboys | 9-7 | 354 | 332 | +22 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 7-9 | 342 | 388 | -46 | — |
 New York Giants | 3-13 | 246 | 388 | -142 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 13-3 | 382 | 252 | +130 | 1 |
 Detroit Lions | 9-7 | 410 | 376 | +34 | — |
 Green Bay Packers | 7-9 | 320 | 384 | -64 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 5-11 | 264 | 320 | -56 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 11-5 | 448 | 326 | +122 | 4 |
 Carolina Panthers | 11-5 | 363 | 327 | +36 | 5 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 10-6 | 353 | 315 | +38 | 6 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5-11 | 335 | 382 | -47 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 11-5 | 478 | 329 | +149 | 3 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 9-7 | 366 | 332 | +34 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 8-8 | 295 | 361 | -66 | — |
 San Francisco 49ers | 6-10 | 331 | 383 | -52 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2017-12-31SF 34 – 13 LARgave the winner 18.9%2017-12-12NE 20 – 27 MIAgave the winner 20.8%2017-10-15MIA 20 – 17 ATLgave the winner 21.2%2017-10-01CAR 33 – 30 NEgave the winner 22.3%2017-10-16NYG 23 – 10 DENgave the winner 23.8%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.