2019
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · KC won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2019 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 12-4 | 420 | 225 | +195 | 3 |
 Buffalo Bills | 10-6 | 314 | 259 | +55 | 5 |
 New York Jets | 7-9 | 276 | 359 | -83 | — |
 Miami Dolphins | 5-11 | 306 | 494 | -188 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 14-2 | 531 | 282 | +249 | 1 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-8 | 289 | 303 | -14 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 6-10 | 335 | 393 | -58 | — |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 2-14 | 279 | 420 | -141 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 10-6 | 378 | 385 | -7 | 4 |
 Tennessee Titans | 9-7 | 402 | 331 | +71 | 6 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 7-9 | 361 | 373 | -12 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-10 | 300 | 397 | -97 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 | 451 | 308 | +143 | 2 |
 Denver Broncos | 7-9 | 282 | 316 | -34 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 7-9 | 313 | 419 | -106 | — |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 5-11 | 337 | 345 | -8 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 9-7 | 385 | 354 | +31 | 4 |
 Dallas Cowboys | 8-8 | 434 | 321 | +113 | — |
 New York Giants | 4-12 | 341 | 451 | -110 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 3-13 | 266 | 435 | -169 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 13-3 | 376 | 313 | +63 | 2 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 407 | 303 | +104 | 6 |
 Chicago Bears | 8-8 | 280 | 298 | -18 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 3-12-1 | 341 | 423 | -82 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 13-3 | 458 | 341 | +117 | 3 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-9 | 458 | 449 | +9 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 7-9 | 381 | 399 | -18 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | 340 | 470 | -130 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 13-3 | 479 | 310 | +169 | 1 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 11-5 | 405 | 398 | +7 | 5 |
 Los Angeles Rams | 9-7 | 394 | 364 | +30 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 5-10-1 | 361 | 442 | -81 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2019-12-29MIA 27 – 24 NEgave the winner 14.2%2019-11-10MIA 16 – 12 INDgave the winner 16.2%2019-09-29TB 55 – 40 LARgave the winner 19.0%2019-12-22ARI 27 – 13 SEAgave the winner 19.4%2019-11-10ATL 26 – 9 NOgave the winner 19.8%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.