2025
272 regular-season games · 13 in the postseason · SEA won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top seed in each conference had a bye in 2025 and enter at the divisional round.
Seed numbers withheld for National Football Conference — the season turned on a tiebreaker this project does not model, and a confident wrong number is worse than none.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 14-3 | 490 | 320 | +170 | 2 |
 Buffalo Bills | 12-5 | 481 | 365 | +116 | 6 |
 Miami Dolphins | 7-10 | 347 | 424 | -77 | — |
 New York Jets | 3-14 | 300 | 503 | -203 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 | 397 | 387 | +10 | 4 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 | 424 | 398 | +26 | — |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 | 414 | 492 | -78 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 5-12 | 279 | 379 | -100 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 13-4 | 474 | 336 | +138 | 3 |
 Houston Texans | 12-5 | 404 | 295 | +109 | 5 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 466 | 412 | +54 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 3-14 | 284 | 478 | -194 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 14-3 | 401 | 311 | +90 | 1 |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 | 368 | 340 | +28 | 7 |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 | 362 | 328 | +34 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 3-14 | 241 | 432 | -191 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 | 379 | 325 | +54 | — |
 Dallas Cowboys | 7-9-1 | 471 | 511 | -40 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 5-12 | 356 | 451 | -95 | — |
 New York Giants | 4-13 | 381 | 439 | -58 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 11-6 | 441 | 415 | +26 | — |
 Green Bay Packers | 9-7-1 | 391 | 360 | +31 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 9-8 | 481 | 413 | +68 | — |
 Minnesota Vikings | 9-8 | 344 | 333 | +11 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 | 380 | 411 | -31 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 8-9 | 353 | 401 | -48 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 8-9 | 311 | 380 | -69 | — |
 New Orleans Saints | 6-11 | 306 | 383 | -77 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 | 483 | 292 | +191 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 | 518 | 346 | +172 | — |
 San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 | 437 | 371 | +66 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | 355 | 488 | -133 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2026-01-04WSH 24 – 17 PHIgave the winner 19.1%2025-10-10PHI 17 – 34 NYGgave the winner 19.9%2025-11-02CAR 16 – 13 GBgave the winner 19.9%2025-10-06NE 23 – 20 BUFgave the winner 20.7%2025-10-05TEN 22 – 21 ARIgave the winner 21.8%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.