2016
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · NE won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2016 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 14-2 | 441 | 250 | +191 | 1 |
 Miami Dolphins | 10-6 | 363 | 380 | -17 | 6 |
 Buffalo Bills | 7-9 | 399 | 378 | +21 | — |
 New York Jets | 5-11 | 275 | 409 | -134 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 11-5 | 399 | 327 | +72 | 3 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 8-8 | 343 | 321 | +22 | — |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 6-9-1 | 325 | 315 | +10 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 1-15 | 264 | 452 | -188 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 9-7 | 381 | 378 | +3 | — |
 Houston Texans | 9-7 | 279 | 328 | -49 | 4 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 8-8 | 411 | 392 | +19 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-13 | 318 | 400 | -82 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 | 389 | 311 | +78 | 2 |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 12-4 | 416 | 385 | +31 | 5 |
 Denver Broncos | 9-7 | 333 | 297 | +36 | — |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 5-11 | 410 | 423 | -13 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 13-3 | 421 | 306 | +115 | 1 |
 New York Giants | 11-5 | 310 | 284 | +26 | 5 |
 Washington Commanders | 8-7-1 | 396 | 383 | +13 | — |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 7-9 | 367 | 331 | +36 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 10-6 | 432 | 388 | +44 | 4 |
 Detroit Lions | 9-7 | 346 | 358 | -12 | 6 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 8-8 | 327 | 307 | +20 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 3-13 | 279 | 399 | -120 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 11-5 | 540 | 406 | +134 | 2 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-7 | 354 | 369 | -15 | — |
 New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 469 | 454 | +15 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 6-10 | 369 | 402 | -33 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 10-5-1 | 354 | 292 | +62 | 3 |
 Arizona Cardinals | 7-8-1 | 418 | 362 | +56 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 4-12 | 224 | 394 | -170 | — |
 San Francisco 49ers | 2-14 | 309 | 480 | -171 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2016-12-18TEN 19 – 17 KCgave the winner 18.5%2016-11-20TB 19 – 17 KCgave the winner 19.7%2016-09-18TEN 16 – 15 DETgave the winner 20.6%2016-10-11TB 17 – 14 CARgave the winner 23.2%2016-10-09ATL 23 – 16 DENgave the winner 24.6%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.