2023
272 regular-season games · 13 in the postseason · KC won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top seed in each conference had a bye in 2023 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 11-6 | 451 | 311 | +140 | 2 |
 Miami Dolphins | 11-6 | 496 | 391 | +105 | 6 |
 New York Jets | 7-10 | 268 | 355 | -87 | — |
 New England Patriots | 4-13 | 236 | 366 | -130 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 13-4 | 483 | 280 | +203 | 1 |
 Cleveland Browns | 11-6 | 396 | 362 | +34 | 5 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 | 304 | 324 | -20 | 7 |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 9-8 | 366 | 384 | -18 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 10-7 | 377 | 353 | +24 | 4 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 9-8 | 377 | 371 | +6 | — |
 Indianapolis Colts | 9-8 | 396 | 415 | -19 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 6-11 | 305 | 367 | -62 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 11-6 | 371 | 294 | +77 | 3 |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 8-9 | 332 | 331 | +1 | — |
 Denver Broncos | 8-9 | 357 | 413 | -56 | — |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 5-12 | 346 | 398 | -52 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 12-5 | 509 | 315 | +194 | 2 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 | 433 | 428 | +5 | 5 |
 New York Giants | 6-11 | 266 | 407 | -141 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 4-13 | 329 | 518 | -189 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 12-5 | 461 | 395 | +66 | 3 |
 Green Bay Packers | 9-8 | 383 | 350 | +33 | 7 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 7-10 | 344 | 362 | -18 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 7-10 | 360 | 379 | -19 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 9-8 | 402 | 327 | +75 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-8 | 348 | 325 | +23 | 4 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 7-10 | 321 | 373 | -52 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 2-15 | 236 | 416 | -180 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 | 491 | 298 | +193 | 1 |
 Los Angeles Rams | 10-7 | 404 | 377 | +27 | 6 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 9-8 | 364 | 402 | -38 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 4-13 | 330 | 455 | -125 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2023-12-31ARI 35 – 31 PHIgave the winner 17.6%2023-12-03ARI 24 – 10 PITgave the winner 19.3%2024-01-06PIT 17 – 10 BALgave the winner 19.7%2023-10-29KC 9 – 24 DENgave the winner 20.2%2023-12-12TEN 28 – 27 MIAgave the winner 20.5%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.