2020
256 regular-season games · 13 in the postseason · TB won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top seed in each conference had a bye in 2020 and enter at the divisional round.
Seed numbers withheld for National Football Conference — the season turned on a tiebreaker this project does not model, and a confident wrong number is worse than none.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 13-3 | 501 | 375 | +126 | 2 |
 Miami Dolphins | 10-6 | 404 | 338 | +66 | — |
 New England Patriots | 7-9 | 326 | 353 | -27 | — |
 New York Jets | 2-14 | 243 | 457 | -214 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 12-4 | 416 | 312 | +104 | 3 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 11-5 | 468 | 303 | +165 | 5 |
 Cleveland Browns | 11-5 | 408 | 419 | -11 | 6 |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 4-11-1 | 311 | 424 | -113 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 | 451 | 362 | +89 | 7 |
 Tennessee Titans | 11-5 | 491 | 439 | +52 | 4 |
 Houston Texans | 4-12 | 384 | 464 | -80 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-15 | 306 | 492 | -186 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 14-2 | 473 | 362 | +111 | 1 |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 8-8 | 434 | 478 | -44 | — |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 7-9 | 384 | 426 | -42 | — |
 Denver Broncos | 5-11 | 323 | 446 | -123 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 7-9 | 335 | 329 | +6 | — |
 New York Giants | 6-10 | 280 | 357 | -77 | — |
 Dallas Cowboys | 6-10 | 395 | 473 | -78 | — |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 4-11-1 | 334 | 418 | -84 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 13-3 | 509 | 369 | +140 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 8-8 | 372 | 370 | +2 | — |
 Minnesota Vikings | 7-9 | 430 | 475 | -45 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 5-11 | 377 | 519 | -142 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 12-4 | 482 | 337 | +145 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11-5 | 492 | 355 | +137 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | 350 | 402 | -52 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 4-12 | 396 | 414 | -18 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 12-4 | 459 | 371 | +88 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 10-6 | 372 | 296 | +76 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 8-8 | 410 | 367 | +43 | — |
 San Francisco 49ers | 6-10 | 376 | 390 | -14 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2020-12-20NYJ 23 – 20 LARgave the winner 9.4%2021-01-03LAC 38 – 21 KCgave the winner 12.9%2020-10-11LV 40 – 32 KCgave the winner 16.5%2020-12-07WSH 23 – 17 PITgave the winner 17.4%2020-12-06NYG 17 – 12 SEAgave the winner 22.8%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.