2009
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · NO won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2009 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 10-6 | 427 | 285 | +142 | 4 |
 New York Jets | 9-7 | 348 | 236 | +112 | 6 |
 Miami Dolphins | 7-9 | 360 | 390 | -30 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 6-10 | 258 | 326 | -68 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 10-6 | 305 | 291 | +14 | 3 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 9-7 | 391 | 261 | +130 | 5 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-7 | 368 | 324 | +44 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 5-11 | 245 | 375 | -130 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 14-2 | 416 | 307 | +109 | 1 |
 Houston Texans | 9-7 | 388 | 333 | +55 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 8-8 | 354 | 402 | -48 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 7-9 | 290 | 380 | -90 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 13-3 | 454 | 320 | +134 | 2 |
 Denver Broncos | 8-8 | 326 | 324 | +2 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 5-11 | 197 | 379 | -182 | — |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 4-12 | 294 | 424 | -130 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 11-5 | 361 | 250 | +111 | 3 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 11-5 | 429 | 337 | +92 | 6 |
 New York Giants | 8-8 | 402 | 427 | -25 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 4-12 | 266 | 336 | -70 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 12-4 | 470 | 312 | +158 | 2 |
 Green Bay Packers | 11-5 | 461 | 297 | +164 | 5 |
 Chicago Bears | 7-9 | 327 | 375 | -48 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 2-14 | 262 | 494 | -232 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 13-3 | 510 | 341 | +169 | 1 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 9-7 | 363 | 325 | +38 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 8-8 | 315 | 308 | +7 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-13 | 244 | 400 | -156 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 375 | 325 | +50 | 4 |
 San Francisco 49ers | 8-8 | 330 | 281 | +49 | — |
 Seattle Seahawks | 5-11 | 280 | 390 | -110 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 1-15 | 175 | 436 | -261 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2009-12-06LV 27 – 24 PITgave the winner 11.8%2009-12-27TB 20 – 17 NOgave the winner 11.8%2009-12-27NYJ 29 – 15 INDgave the winner 19.2%2009-12-20DAL 24 – 17 NOgave the winner 20.6%2010-01-03KC 44 – 24 DENgave the winner 22.3%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.