2005
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · PIT won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2005 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 10-6 | 379 | 338 | +41 | 4 |
 Miami Dolphins | 9-7 | 318 | 317 | +1 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 5-11 | 271 | 367 | -96 | — |
 New York Jets | 4-12 | 240 | 355 | -115 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 11-5 | 389 | 258 | +131 | 6 |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 11-5 | 421 | 350 | +71 | 3 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 6-10 | 265 | 299 | -34 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 6-10 | 232 | 301 | -69 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 14-2 | 439 | 247 | +192 | 1 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 12-4 | 361 | 269 | +92 | 5 |
 Tennessee Titans | 4-12 | 299 | 421 | -122 | — |
 Houston Texans | 2-14 | 260 | 431 | -171 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 13-3 | 395 | 258 | +137 | 2 |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 10-6 | 403 | 325 | +78 | — |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 9-7 | 418 | 312 | +106 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 4-12 | 290 | 383 | -93 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Giants | 11-5 | 422 | 314 | +108 | 4 |
 Washington Commanders | 10-6 | 359 | 293 | +66 | 6 |
 Dallas Cowboys | 9-7 | 325 | 308 | +17 | — |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 6-10 | 310 | 388 | -78 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 11-5 | 260 | 202 | +58 | 2 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 9-7 | 306 | 344 | -38 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 5-11 | 254 | 345 | -91 | — |
 Green Bay Packers | 4-12 | 298 | 344 | -46 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 11-5 | 391 | 259 | +132 | 5 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11-5 | 300 | 274 | +26 | 3 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 8-8 | 351 | 341 | +10 | — |
 New Orleans Saints | 3-13 | 235 | 398 | -163 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 13-3 | 452 | 271 | +181 | 1 |
 Los Angeles Rams | 6-10 | 363 | 429 | -66 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 5-11 | 311 | 387 | -76 | — |
 San Francisco 49ers | 4-12 | 239 | 428 | -189 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2005-12-24BUF 37 – 27 CINgave the winner 14.8%2005-12-11MIA 23 – 21 LACgave the winner 16.1%2005-11-13MIN 24 – 21 NYGgave the winner 21.5%2006-01-01MIA 28 – 26 NEgave the winner 21.6%2006-01-02LAR 20 – 10 DALgave the winner 22.9%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.