2010
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · GB won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2010 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 14-2 | 518 | 313 | +205 | 1 |
 New York Jets | 11-5 | 367 | 304 | +63 | 6 |
 Miami Dolphins | 7-9 | 273 | 333 | -60 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 4-12 | 283 | 425 | -142 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 12-4 | 375 | 232 | +143 | 2 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 12-4 | 357 | 270 | +87 | 5 |
 Cleveland Browns | 5-11 | 271 | 332 | -61 | — |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 4-12 | 322 | 395 | -73 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 10-6 | 435 | 388 | +47 | 3 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 8-8 | 353 | 419 | -66 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 6-10 | 356 | 339 | +17 | — |
 Houston Texans | 6-10 | 390 | 427 | -37 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 10-6 | 366 | 326 | +40 | 4 |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 9-7 | 441 | 322 | +119 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 8-8 | 410 | 371 | +39 | — |
 Denver Broncos | 4-12 | 344 | 471 | -127 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 10-6 | 439 | 377 | +62 | 3 |
 New York Giants | 10-6 | 394 | 347 | +47 | — |
 Dallas Cowboys | 6-10 | 394 | 436 | -42 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 6-10 | 302 | 377 | -75 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 11-5 | 334 | 286 | +48 | 2 |
 Green Bay Packers | 10-6 | 388 | 240 | +148 | 6 |
 Detroit Lions | 6-10 | 362 | 369 | -7 | — |
 Minnesota Vikings | 6-10 | 281 | 348 | -67 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 13-3 | 414 | 288 | +126 | 1 |
 New Orleans Saints | 11-5 | 384 | 307 | +77 | 5 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10-6 | 341 | 318 | +23 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 2-14 | 196 | 408 | -212 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 7-9 | 289 | 328 | -39 | — |
 Seattle Seahawks | 7-9 | 310 | 407 | -97 | 4 |
 San Francisco 49ers | 6-10 | 305 | 346 | -41 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 5-11 | 289 | 434 | -145 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2010-10-24CLE 30 – 17 NOgave the winner 18.7%2010-12-29MIN 24 – 14 PHIgave the winner 19.8%2010-12-12GB 3 – 7 DETgave the winner 21.8%2011-01-16NYJ 28 – 21 NEgave the winner 21.9%2010-11-21WSH 19 – 16 TENgave the winner 24.3%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.