2006
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · IND won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2006 and enter at the divisional round.
Seed numbers withheld for National Football Conference — the season turned on a tiebreaker this project does not model, and a confident wrong number is worse than none.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 12-4 | 385 | 237 | +148 | 4 |
 New York Jets | 10-6 | 316 | 295 | +21 | 5 |
 Buffalo Bills | 7-9 | 300 | 311 | -11 | — |
 Miami Dolphins | 6-10 | 260 | 283 | -23 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 13-3 | 353 | 201 | +152 | 2 |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 8-8 | 373 | 331 | +42 | — |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-8 | 353 | 315 | +38 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 4-12 | 238 | 356 | -118 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 12-4 | 427 | 360 | +67 | 3 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 8-8 | 371 | 274 | +97 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 8-8 | 324 | 400 | -76 | — |
 Houston Texans | 6-10 | 267 | 366 | -99 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 14-2 | 492 | 303 | +189 | 1 |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 9-7 | 331 | 315 | +16 | 6 |
 Denver Broncos | 9-7 | 319 | 305 | +14 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 2-14 | 168 | 332 | -164 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 10-6 | 398 | 328 | +70 | — |
 Dallas Cowboys | 9-7 | 425 | 350 | +75 | — |
 New York Giants | 8-8 | 355 | 362 | -7 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 5-11 | 307 | 376 | -69 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 13-3 | 427 | 255 | +172 | — |
 Green Bay Packers | 8-8 | 301 | 366 | -65 | — |
 Minnesota Vikings | 6-10 | 282 | 327 | -45 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 3-13 | 305 | 398 | -93 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 10-6 | 413 | 322 | +91 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 8-8 | 270 | 305 | -35 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 7-9 | 292 | 328 | -36 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-12 | 211 | 353 | -142 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 9-7 | 335 | 341 | -6 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 8-8 | 367 | 381 | -14 | — |
 San Francisco 49ers | 7-9 | 298 | 412 | -114 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 5-11 | 314 | 389 | -75 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2006-11-05MIA 31 – 13 CHIgave the winner 15.0%2006-12-31DET 39 – 31 DALgave the winner 17.8%2007-01-01GB 26 – 7 CHIgave the winner 18.6%2006-10-15TEN 25 – 22 WSHgave the winner 19.5%2006-11-12HOU 13 – 10 JAXgave the winner 20.3%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.