2011
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · NYG won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2011 and enter at the divisional round.
Seed numbers withheld for American Football Conference — the season turned on a tiebreaker this project does not model, and a confident wrong number is worse than none.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 13-3 | 513 | 342 | +171 | — |
 New York Jets | 8-8 | 377 | 363 | +14 | — |
 Miami Dolphins | 6-10 | 329 | 313 | +16 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 6-10 | 372 | 434 | -62 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 12-4 | 378 | 266 | +112 | — |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 12-4 | 325 | 227 | +98 | — |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 9-7 | 344 | 323 | +21 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 4-12 | 218 | 307 | -89 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 10-6 | 381 | 278 | +103 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 9-7 | 325 | 317 | +8 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | 243 | 329 | -86 | — |
 Indianapolis Colts | 2-14 | 243 | 430 | -187 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 8-8 | 406 | 377 | +29 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 8-8 | 359 | 433 | -74 | — |
 Denver Broncos | 8-8 | 309 | 390 | -81 | — |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 7-9 | 212 | 338 | -126 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Giants | 9-7 | 394 | 400 | -6 | 4 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 8-8 | 396 | 328 | +68 | — |
 Dallas Cowboys | 8-8 | 369 | 347 | +22 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 5-11 | 288 | 367 | -79 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 15-1 | 560 | 359 | +201 | 1 |
 Detroit Lions | 10-6 | 474 | 387 | +87 | 6 |
 Chicago Bears | 8-8 | 353 | 341 | +12 | — |
 Minnesota Vikings | 3-13 | 340 | 449 | -109 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 13-3 | 547 | 339 | +208 | 3 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 10-6 | 402 | 350 | +52 | 5 |
 Carolina Panthers | 6-10 | 406 | 429 | -23 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-12 | 287 | 494 | -207 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 13-3 | 380 | 229 | +151 | 2 |
 Arizona Cardinals | 8-8 | 312 | 348 | -36 | — |
 Seattle Seahawks | 7-9 | 321 | 315 | +6 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 2-14 | 193 | 407 | -214 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2011-12-18CAR 28 – 13 HOUgave the winner 15.6%2012-01-15NYG 37 – 20 GBgave the winner 16.6%2011-12-18GB 14 – 19 KCgave the winner 20.2%2011-12-04KC 10 – 3 CHIgave the winner 20.2%2011-11-06DEN 38 – 24 LVgave the winner 23.9%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.