2008
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · PIT won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2008 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 11-5 | 410 | 309 | +101 | — |
 Miami Dolphins | 11-5 | 345 | 317 | +28 | 3 |
 New York Jets | 9-7 | 405 | 356 | +49 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 7-9 | 336 | 342 | -6 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 12-4 | 347 | 223 | +124 | 2 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 11-5 | 385 | 244 | +141 | 6 |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 4-11-1 | 204 | 364 | -160 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 4-12 | 232 | 350 | -118 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 13-3 | 375 | 234 | +141 | 1 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 12-4 | 377 | 298 | +79 | 5 |
 Houston Texans | 8-8 | 366 | 394 | -28 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | 302 | 367 | -65 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 8-8 | 439 | 347 | +92 | 4 |
 Denver Broncos | 8-8 | 370 | 448 | -78 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 5-11 | 263 | 388 | -125 | — |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 2-14 | 291 | 440 | -149 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Giants | 12-4 | 427 | 294 | +133 | 1 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 9-6-1 | 416 | 289 | +127 | 6 |
 Dallas Cowboys | 9-7 | 362 | 365 | -3 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 8-8 | 265 | 296 | -31 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 379 | 333 | +46 | 3 |
 Chicago Bears | 9-7 | 375 | 350 | +25 | — |
 Green Bay Packers | 6-10 | 419 | 380 | +39 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 0-16 | 268 | 517 | -249 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 12-4 | 414 | 329 | +85 | 2 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 11-5 | 391 | 325 | +66 | 5 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-7 | 361 | 323 | +38 | — |
 New Orleans Saints | 8-8 | 463 | 393 | +70 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 9-7 | 427 | 426 | +1 | 4 |
 San Francisco 49ers | 7-9 | 339 | 381 | -42 | — |
 Seattle Seahawks | 4-12 | 294 | 392 | -98 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 2-14 | 232 | 465 | -233 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2008-09-21MIA 38 – 13 NEgave the winner 10.0%2008-10-12LAR 19 – 17 WSHgave the winner 17.6%2008-11-30DEN 34 – 17 NYJgave the winner 18.3%2008-11-23NYJ 34 – 13 TENgave the winner 22.0%2008-09-07CAR 26 – 24 LACgave the winner 22.2%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.