2021
272 regular-season games · 13 in the postseason · LAR won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top seed in each conference had a bye in 2021 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 11-6 | 483 | 289 | +194 | 3 |
 New England Patriots | 10-7 | 462 | 303 | +159 | 6 |
 Miami Dolphins | 9-8 | 341 | 373 | -32 | — |
 New York Jets | 4-13 | 310 | 504 | -194 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 10-7 | 460 | 376 | +84 | 4 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-7-1 | 343 | 398 | -55 | 7 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 | 387 | 392 | -5 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 8-9 | 349 | 371 | -22 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 12-5 | 419 | 354 | +65 | 1 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 9-8 | 451 | 365 | +86 | — |
 Houston Texans | 4-13 | 280 | 452 | -172 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-14 | 253 | 457 | -204 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 12-5 | 480 | 364 | +116 | 2 |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 10-7 | 374 | 439 | -65 | 5 |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 9-8 | 474 | 459 | +15 | — |
 Denver Broncos | 7-10 | 335 | 322 | +13 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 12-5 | 530 | 358 | +172 | 3 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 9-8 | 444 | 385 | +59 | 7 |
 Washington Commanders | 7-10 | 335 | 434 | -99 | — |
 New York Giants | 4-13 | 258 | 416 | -158 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 13-4 | 450 | 371 | +79 | 1 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 8-9 | 425 | 426 | -1 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 6-11 | 311 | 407 | -96 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 3-13-1 | 325 | 467 | -142 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13-4 | 511 | 353 | +158 | 2 |
 New Orleans Saints | 9-8 | 364 | 335 | +29 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 7-10 | 313 | 459 | -146 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 5-12 | 304 | 404 | -100 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 | 460 | 372 | +88 | 4 |
 Arizona Cardinals | 11-6 | 449 | 366 | +83 | 5 |
 San Francisco 49ers | 10-7 | 427 | 365 | +62 | 6 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 7-10 | 395 | 366 | +29 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2022-01-09IND 11 – 26 JAXgave the winner 13.4%2021-11-21HOU 22 – 13 TENgave the winner 15.2%2021-11-07BUF 6 – 9 JAXgave the winner 16.3%2021-10-03NYG 27 – 21 NOgave the winner 17.0%2022-01-09GB 30 – 37 DETgave the winner 18.1%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.