2012
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · BAL won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2012 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 12-4 | 557 | 331 | +226 | 2 |
 Miami Dolphins | 7-9 | 288 | 317 | -29 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 6-10 | 344 | 435 | -91 | — |
 New York Jets | 6-10 | 281 | 375 | -94 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 10-6 | 391 | 320 | +71 | 6 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 10-6 | 398 | 344 | +54 | 4 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-8 | 336 | 314 | +22 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 5-11 | 302 | 368 | -66 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 12-4 | 416 | 331 | +85 | 3 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 | 357 | 387 | -30 | 5 |
 Tennessee Titans | 6-10 | 330 | 471 | -141 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-14 | 255 | 444 | -189 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 13-3 | 481 | 289 | +192 | 1 |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 7-9 | 350 | 350 | 0 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 4-12 | 290 | 443 | -153 | — |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 2-14 | 211 | 425 | -214 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 10-6 | 436 | 388 | +48 | 4 |
 New York Giants | 9-7 | 429 | 344 | +85 | — |
 Dallas Cowboys | 8-8 | 376 | 400 | -24 | — |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 4-12 | 280 | 444 | -164 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 11-5 | 433 | 336 | +97 | 3 |
 Chicago Bears | 10-6 | 375 | 277 | +98 | — |
 Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 379 | 348 | +31 | 6 |
 Detroit Lions | 4-12 | 372 | 437 | -65 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 13-3 | 419 | 299 | +120 | 1 |
 New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 461 | 454 | +7 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-9 | 389 | 394 | -5 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 7-9 | 357 | 363 | -6 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 11-4-1 | 397 | 273 | +124 | 2 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 11-5 | 412 | 245 | +167 | 5 |
 Los Angeles Rams | 7-8-1 | 299 | 348 | -49 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 5-11 | 250 | 357 | -107 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2012-09-09WSH 40 – 32 NOgave the winner 16.7%2012-12-30TB 22 – 17 ATLgave the winner 17.8%2012-09-16ARI 20 – 18 NEgave the winner 20.4%2012-12-23MIN 23 – 6 HOUgave the winner 22.1%2012-09-23KC 27 – 24 NOgave the winner 23.8%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.