2014
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · NE won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2014 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 12-4 | 468 | 313 | +155 | 1 |
 Buffalo Bills | 9-7 | 343 | 289 | +54 | — |
 Miami Dolphins | 8-8 | 388 | 373 | +15 | — |
 New York Jets | 4-12 | 283 | 401 | -118 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 11-5 | 436 | 368 | +68 | 3 |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 10-5-1 | 365 | 344 | +21 | 5 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 10-6 | 409 | 302 | +107 | 6 |
 Cleveland Browns | 7-9 | 299 | 337 | -38 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 | 458 | 369 | +89 | 4 |
 Houston Texans | 9-7 | 372 | 307 | +65 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-13 | 249 | 412 | -163 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 2-14 | 254 | 438 | -184 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 12-4 | 482 | 354 | +128 | 2 |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 9-7 | 353 | 281 | +72 | — |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 9-7 | 348 | 348 | 0 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 3-13 | 253 | 452 | -199 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 467 | 352 | +115 | 3 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 10-6 | 474 | 400 | +74 | — |
 New York Giants | 6-10 | 380 | 400 | -20 | — |
 Washington Commanders | 4-12 | 301 | 438 | -137 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 486 | 348 | +138 | 2 |
 Detroit Lions | 11-5 | 321 | 282 | +39 | 6 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 7-9 | 325 | 343 | -18 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 5-11 | 319 | 442 | -123 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 7-8-1 | 339 | 374 | -35 | 4 |
 New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 401 | 424 | -23 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | 381 | 417 | -36 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-14 | 277 | 410 | -133 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 12-4 | 394 | 254 | +140 | 1 |
 Arizona Cardinals | 11-5 | 310 | 299 | +11 | 5 |
 San Francisco 49ers | 8-8 | 306 | 340 | -34 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 6-10 | 324 | 354 | -30 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2014-10-28WSH 20 – 17 DALgave the winner 18.3%2014-11-21KC 20 – 24 LVgave the winner 18.9%2014-12-28BUF 17 – 9 NEgave the winner 19.8%2014-09-15CHI 28 – 20 SFgave the winner 21.1%2014-11-02LAR 13 – 10 SFgave the winner 21.2%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.