2007
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · NYG won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2007 and enter at the divisional round.
Seed numbers withheld for American Football Conference — the season turned on a tiebreaker this project does not model, and a confident wrong number is worse than none.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 16-0 | 589 | 274 | +315 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 7-9 | 252 | 354 | -102 | — |
 New York Jets | 4-12 | 268 | 355 | -87 | — |
 Miami Dolphins | 1-15 | 267 | 437 | -170 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-6 | 393 | 269 | +124 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 10-6 | 402 | 382 | +20 | — |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 7-9 | 380 | 385 | -5 | — |
 Baltimore Ravens | 5-11 | 275 | 384 | -109 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 13-3 | 450 | 262 | +188 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 11-5 | 411 | 304 | +107 | — |
 Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 301 | 297 | +4 | — |
 Houston Texans | 8-8 | 379 | 384 | -5 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 11-5 | 412 | 284 | +128 | — |
 Denver Broncos | 7-9 | 320 | 409 | -89 | — |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 4-12 | 226 | 335 | -109 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 4-12 | 283 | 398 | -115 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 13-3 | 455 | 325 | +130 | 1 |
 New York Giants | 10-6 | 373 | 351 | +22 | 5 |
 Washington Commanders | 9-7 | 334 | 310 | +24 | 6 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 8-8 | 336 | 300 | +36 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 13-3 | 435 | 291 | +144 | 2 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 8-8 | 365 | 311 | +54 | — |
 Chicago Bears | 7-9 | 334 | 348 | -14 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 7-9 | 346 | 444 | -98 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-7 | 334 | 270 | +64 | 4 |
 New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 379 | 388 | -9 | — |
 Carolina Panthers | 7-9 | 267 | 347 | -80 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 4-12 | 259 | 414 | -155 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 10-6 | 393 | 291 | +102 | 3 |
 Arizona Cardinals | 8-8 | 404 | 399 | +5 | — |
 San Francisco 49ers | 5-11 | 219 | 364 | -145 | — |
 Los Angeles Rams | 3-13 | 263 | 438 | -175 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2008-02-03NYG 17 – 14 NEgave the winner 17.9%2007-12-31TEN 16 – 10 INDgave the winner 18.6%2007-11-11LAR 37 – 29 NOgave the winner 23.5%2007-12-16PHI 10 – 6 DALgave the winner 24.3%2007-11-25SF 37 – 31 ARIgave the winner 26.4%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.