2018
256 regular-season games · 11 in the postseason · NE won the Super Bowl
The postseason
Wild cardDivisionalConference championshipSuper Bowl
The connectors are drawn from who actually appeared in each game, not from a fixed tree — the NFL reseeds after every round, so the winner of one wild-card game can land in either divisional game. Where two lines cross, that is the reseeding. The top two seeds in each conference had a bye in 2018 and enter at the divisional round.
American Football Conference
| AFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 11-5 | 436 | 325 | +111 | 2 |
 Miami Dolphins | 7-9 | 319 | 433 | -114 | — |
 Buffalo Bills | 6-10 | 269 | 374 | -105 | — |
 New York Jets | 4-12 | 333 | 441 | -108 | — |
| AFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 10-6 | 389 | 287 | +102 | 4 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-6-1 | 428 | 360 | +68 | — |
 Cleveland Browns | 7-8-1 | 359 | 392 | -33 | — |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 6-10 | 368 | 455 | -87 | — |
| AFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 11-5 | 402 | 316 | +86 | 3 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 10-6 | 433 | 344 | +89 | 6 |
 Tennessee Titans | 9-7 | 310 | 303 | +7 | — |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | 245 | 316 | -71 | — |
| AFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 | 565 | 421 | +144 | 1 |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 12-4 | 428 | 329 | +99 | 5 |
 Denver Broncos | 6-10 | 329 | 349 | -20 | — |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 4-12 | 290 | 467 | -177 | — |
National Football Conference
| NFC East | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 10-6 | 339 | 324 | +15 | 4 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 9-7 | 367 | 348 | +19 | 6 |
 Washington Commanders | 7-9 | 281 | 359 | -78 | — |
 New York Giants | 5-11 | 369 | 412 | -43 | — |
| NFC North | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 12-4 | 421 | 283 | +138 | 3 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 8-7-1 | 360 | 341 | +19 | — |
 Green Bay Packers | 6-9-1 | 376 | 400 | -24 | — |
 Detroit Lions | 6-10 | 324 | 360 | -36 | — |
| NFC South | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 13-3 | 504 | 353 | +151 | 1 |
 Carolina Panthers | 7-9 | 376 | 382 | -6 | — |
 Atlanta Falcons | 7-9 | 414 | 423 | -9 | — |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5-11 | 396 | 464 | -68 | — |
| NFC West | w-l | pf | pa | diff | seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 13-3 | 527 | 384 | +143 | 2 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 10-6 | 428 | 347 | +81 | 5 |
 San Francisco 49ers | 4-12 | 342 | 435 | -93 | — |
 Arizona Cardinals | 3-13 | 225 | 425 | -200 | — |
Where the model was most wrong
2018-12-30CAR 33 – 14 NOgave the winner 15.1%2018-09-23BUF 27 – 6 MINgave the winner 23.3%2018-12-09PIT 21 – 24 LVgave the winner 24.6%2018-10-07BAL 9 – 12 CLEgave the winner 26.7%2018-12-02ARI 20 – 17 GBgave the winner 27.5%
Backtest — the walk-forward never saw these results, but nobody read its numbers before kickoff either.