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Week 5 · 2026
Las Vegas Raidersat
New England PatriotsSun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium · 3-1 vs 2-2
Published pre-game snapshot. Player availability and roster changes are not inputs to these probabilities.
tie 0.32%
LV at NE · published probabilities
Explore a narrow win, a wider win, or a tie.
nfl-margin-lattice-1. Narrow wins sum published margin probabilities. Wider wins use the remainder of each team's published win chance. Ties stay separate.
The 3s and 7s are football's arithmetic — a normal curve would draw a tidy bell straight through them.
NE by 3 7.87%by 3 or more 60.3%
7.07% of the distribution lies outside 28 points and is not drawn.
Slide to any line the model prices — a whole number can push, and at −3 that is worth about one game in twelve.
market
| NE line | covers | push | LV covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -14 | 29.0% | 3.7% | 67.3% |
| -10 | 37.9% | 4.0% | 58.2% |
| -7 | 45.5% | 5.2% | 49.2% |
| -6 | 50.8% | 3.7% | 45.5% |
| -4 | 56.6% | 2.5% | 40.9% |
| -3.5 · market | 59.1% | — | 40.9% |
| -3 | 59.1% | 7.9% | 33.0% |
| PK | 71.2% | 0.3% | 28.5% |
| +3 | 75.1% | 5.6% | 19.3% |
| +4 | 80.7% | 2.2% | 17.1% |
| +6 | 84.3% | 2.1% | 13.6% |
| +7 | 86.4% | 3.0% | 10.6% |
| +10 | 91.1% | 1.4% | 7.5% |
| +14 | 94.3% | 1.2% | 4.5% |
At the market's -3.5 the model gives NE 59.1% to cover and 40.9% against — a half-point line cannot push.
Provider DraftKings · the market is the benchmark, not the target.
From ESPN — the model does not see this, so apply it to the forecast above yourself.
LV at NE · game summary
Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
ESPN · summary update not supplied
Summary leader lines; statistic period is unverified. No starter, full roster, scouting grade or career record is inferred. Summaries may be cached for 24 hours.
Selected leaders and reported availability from this game summary. This is not a full roster.
ESPN · summary update not supplied